World’s Population in Next Thirty Years
The population of the world has passed a serious turning point. The global population is dynamically increasing. It is expected to be about 2.5 billion in 2050. As the matter of fact, almost entire growth will take place in less developed countries. The population of most developed countries will remain almost unchanged. If to consider the worldwide development, the population dynamics is one of the key factors. The world has experienced an unprecedented grows in population. According to the determination, the population increases if the birth rate is higher than the death rate. As the matter of fact, natural population of the world is rapidly increasing. It is dominant to underline that the country’s population increases with the increase of natural population and migration. If one speaks about the rate of world population grows with, it depends exclusively on natural increase.
In the late 19th-20th centuries, the death rate visibly decreased in the world. The modern medicine developed after the World War II and developing world plummeting. In the majority of the developing countries, the decline in birth and death rates is directly bounded. As the matter of fact, the death rate precedes the birth rate. This situation results in the population growth of 3-4 percent annually. Since the 1960s, the birth rate has declined in most developing countries, except countries located in the Middle East. In the 19th century, the birth rates in the United State of America and Europe differed very much from those that developing countries had.
It is evident that poor countries have high birth rate nowadays. Moreover, women tend to have fewer children than previously. Majorly, the level of fertility depends on developing countries’ economic growth and human development (Soubbotina, 2004). The low fertility rate might cause low birth rate and result in lower population growth in the country. It is worth noting, that the low birth rate has lowered population growth rate in developing countries, despite the fact that the death rate keeps continuing to decline. Scientists argue that the high rate of population growth directly relates to the level of poverty in the country. The poorer the country is, the higher rate of population growth it has.
General Description of Population Grows
Despite the low fertility, the population of the world is expected to be over 9 billion till 2050. According to the medium variant, it will add 35 million of people annually. However, future population growth directly depends on the path, which takes future fertility rate. It is evident that the population of developing countries will keep growing, while the population of developed countries will be unchanged (Zlotnik, 2004). The rapid population increase will prevail in the countries, which are less developed.
As the matter of fact, the population of 51 countries is expected to be lower till 2050 than in 2013. Among these countries are Italy, Germany, post-Soviet countries, and Japan. Scientists prove that eight countries will take leading positions in the world (Soubbotina, 2004). According to their contribution to the growth, these countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population. It is believed that the USA, DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo), India, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, China, and Ethiopia are among these countries. Average world levels of fertility differ according to the level of country development. Less developed countries have higher levels of fertility. The fact is that the level of fertility in 19 percent (44 countries) of the world population is currently very low (Zlotnik, 2004). Even Arabian countries, except Albania, get low rate of fertility. It is not typical for these countries at all. However, during last century the fertility decline was very popular in majority of developed European countries. Anyway, there were recorded few small increases of fertility in the USA, Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Germany. The problem of increasing population has to do with global fertility and mortality rate. Since the late 1980s, the mortality level in Eastern Europe has been increasing. Unfortunately, the mortality age in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet countries has got lower than 50 years ago. It depends on spreading various diseases. It can be safely assumed that the life expectancy in the Southern Africa has fallen as well. As a consequence, global morbidity and mortality increase and the population growth gets slower.
The population ageing takes dominant effect on global population. It is indicated by the increases in the mediate age. It means that fifty percent of population must be older and fifty percent of population must be younger than that age (Zlotnik, 2004). The population aging occurs more often in developed countries. Nowadays, over 10 developed countries have a mediate age about 40 years. By 2050, ninety countries are expected to have the same mediate age; over forty-five of them will be developing countries. It stands to reason that the countries where the fertility remains high will experience the lowest population aging.
As it is evident, the birth level in developed countries will decrease. However, scientists prove that the population in these regions next few years will increase due to 100 million migrants. The migration can either prevent population decline or double at least the contribution of natural increase to the population growth.
The Future Concerns with Regards to Overpopulation
Nowadays, over 7 billion people inhabit the Earth. The world population rate grows by eighty million annually. If it keeps growing, the population of the planet will be 9 billion till 2035. Continuing growth of world population has many negative consequences. First of all, it results in the global environmental pollution. The dearth of water and food will be unavoidable. The natural resources are limited. Their irrational usage leads to natural disasters. The overpopulated planet creates unfriendly environment for living beings. That is why, the United Nations organizations are trying to predict further population of the planet and the areas of its highest concentration.
Over last thirty years, the population growth fell from 2% to1.5% per year. The experts expect this tendency to continue. The fact is that in absolute amount the global population rate grows faster than ever before. The next three decades are predicted to add another 2.5 billion people. Ninety percent of them will be located in developing countries. Admittedly, in near future the share of developing countries will increase from 84 to 88 percent. The population of the Earth is located unevenly. Highly populated regions are combined with low populated regions. It is important to observe the global and regional scales of world’s overpopulation to determine reasons and patterns of its growth.
Overpopulation on a Global Scale
Despite falling fertility, world population will grow significantly in the next 30 years. It is the greatest paradox in global population trends. On one hand, it is the low fertility rate in highly developed countries. On the other hand, the world will experience further overpopulation. It depends on the event that the people do not inhabit the Earth uniformly. There are highly populated countries in the world. As it is seen from investigation, these countries are less developed. Majorly, highly populated countries are situated in Africa and Asia. It turns out to be significant to understand that the fertility in overpopulated countries keeps rising, while the birth rate in Europe is getting lower. According to the United Nations Population Division project, it is predicted over 2 billion people increase between 1995-2025. By 2050, there will be an additional 1.5 billion people on the planet.
It is purposeful to determine that the world’s overpopulation is dominant in poor countries. The number of children born per a woman determines fertility rate in the country (Busam, 1995). Some mass media made a loud conclusion that the world population growth will be over soon. This decision is a little premature. This conclusion is based on the assumption that each country worldwide will have a total fertility rate. Its amount will reach 2.1 children per one woman.
Speaking about developing countries, nowadays Pakistan has a rate of 5 children per woman. As investigations show, this rate will fall to 2.1 during next 30 years. Obviously, all calculating is just an approximate prediction (“Population & sustainability news digest”, 2013). There are many chances that the world will be much more overpopulated than 9.4 billion people till 2050. In regard to historical events, which took place during mankind evolution, there possibly might be some wars or natural disasters able to decrease the amount of population. It is impossible to exclude another doubling of the world population in thirty years from now.
On a global scale, it is seen that the world’s population will inevitably age during next decades. It is an unavoidable consequence of the rapid fertility decline since 1970s and large birth rate during 1950s-1960s. In 2025, the children born in 1960s will be between 70-75 years of age. The aging generation is followed by a global fertility decline. This leads to the aging and extinction of nations. Therefore, it is evident that in few decades developing nations with high population rate will need new areas to survive. Therefore, further migration is the only way for developing countries to locate themselves.
Overpopulation on a Regional Scale
It is not a secret that the world population increase is concentrated in Asia. It is predicted that 3.7 billion people will be added to the general amount of population between 1995 and 2050. Asia is expected to contribute some 2 billion to the general number. Such abnormal increase depends on an already massive size of population on the continent. The greatest growth of Asia population will occur in next thirty years. Africa takes the second place in the global rate of overpopulated countries. Despite increased mortality due to AIDS, the significant slowing down of the population growth in Africa cannot be expected. This mainland will contribute about 1.3 billion people to the world population in next three decades. The thing is that fertility is very high in Sub-Sahara Africa, so it can offset the effect of high mortality rate. During the next three decades, the population of Africa is expected to increase more than twice.
On the other hand, the population increase in Caribbean and Latin America will be very moderate. It will increase almost two-thirds in thirty years. It depends on small initial size of population and low level of fertility. As the matter of fact, the population of Europe will certainly decline (Friedman, 2012). According to the medium variant proclaimed by the United Nations, the population of Europe will shrink by ninety-one million people from 1995 till the middle of the next century.
It is already proved that the highest rates of population growth will be centered in South Africa and Western Asia. The country-by-country analysis demonstrates that over past forty-five years it was oil exploring nations of Western Asia, which have the highest population growth rate. For instance, the United Arabs Emirates between 1950 and 1995 had annual population growth rate of 7.7 percent. Such a rapid population growth in these countries was fueled by immigration and high fertility rate. Western Sahara, Qatar, Djibouti, Saudi Arabian, and Kuwait were estimated to have an extremely high population growth rates. Next thirty years, the number of countries with high population growth rate will increase in Sub-Sahara Africa (Zlotnick, 2005). Oman, Yemen, Ethiopia, Somalia, Gaza Strip, Rwanda, Angola, and Liberia are expected to be the fastest growing populations. According to the United Nations predictions, the United Arab Emirates will have the greatest population growth in the next century. The other top-ten countries for further population growth are oil-exporting countries of Western Asia.
Comparing India and China
India takes a particular part in the population growth rate. Significantly, it depends on the fact that India has one of the oldest family planning programs. In the middle of last century, India and China had the same rate of fertility. It was approximately 6 children per woman. However, the country’s average fertility declines nowadays. According to statistics, the total fertility rate in China fell to about 2.5 children per one woman, while in India it was 4 children per woman. Speaking of India population, it is worth noting that the population in the country is much younger than in China
Young adults in India who were born during high growth period of the 1960s-1980s will enter the reproductive age in near future. Therefore, the Indian population will probably increase to 1.6 billion people by 2050. It is evident that Indian population might get much larger. According to recent investigations, the population of India will increase by an additional 400 million people by 2025. The population of China will grow only to 205 million people. This is the straight way for India to outgrow China. The following picture shows Indian overpopulation.
It is known that India and China are two most talked about countries. Both of them deal with an arising problem of highly increasing population. According to investigations, the population of India will be largest in the world by 2030. The other situation is with China. Its population is expected to decline in its growth after 2030. India is a developing country, which population explosion will benefit it considering its growing economy. However, the high rate of population growth will bring serious health problems in India. Moreover, there will arise economic, geographical, and political conflicts as well. There is little wonder that the facts and comparison of the population between China and India stands in favor of India. According to the latest figures, India’s population will rise by almost 350 million people. Its population will start stabilizing by 2060. By 2030, India’s working population will the youngest in the world as compared to the USA, China, etc. In 2005, the Indian’s population was lower than China’s by over 200 million. By 2050, Indian’s population is expected to be higher than China’s by over 200 million.